My First Recession

There is a special place for all the firsts in our lives... First day at school, first day at college, first drink, first job, first salary and many other firsts... These firsts in a way are milestones that define the journey of our life. As I was going through the newspaper in the morning today (which was full off grim business outlook, layoffs, etc) it struck me that this happens to be my first recession... Not something to be celebrated but interesting nonetheless... As far as the facts and figures go there has been a recession in India during 1996 but this one is the first one ever since I have become literate in economical sense and thus deserves its share of attention...

The times are exciting. Yes, I dare to say so and I say so during a recession at that... Living in this part of the world, I should call it a slowdown rather than a recession as India will still continue to grow with estimated GDP growth rate of anywhere between 5-7% in the next couple of years. I think as a student of the subject of finance the opportunity to learn is immense during these times. Not that there are no opportunities to learn when there is a general feeling of well being all around or when financial system around the globe is operating smoothly as it should unlike in the past few months but because there are a lot of things happening around which I may not seen again in my lifetime. Take for example the historic 700+ billion dollar bailout package in US, historical fall of the stock markets around the globe, the Iceland crisis, the historic rise and fall of crude oil prices and so on...

The good thing about slowdowns, recessions and bad times in general is that they help in weeding out the weak and unwanted excesses and result in many reforms or at least that is what we’ve seen in the past... I intend to look at this recession from an emerging markets’ perspective and focus on following aspects as India rides on this trough of the business cycle:

• The action in the Indian stock markets
• Actions of RBI in relation with the FED
• The policy reforms in India
• Indian businesses pre and post recession

Every week I will be taking up one important event pertaining to these aspects and discuss it at length. Your views, comments and inputs are welcome as always...